Last week , as most of market pandits were bearish on Nifty's last week outlook but in my week before previous analysis, ,i told apparently that Nifty will definitely look for 10,000 mark and will go bit above to that.
In whole May Market ,FII's were consistently selling and there was no Smart money coming into the market, hence market once broke the level of 9000 and once settled to 8800 as well.
But last week of may suddenly smart money in terms of FII's started pouring into the market and remember once this kind of rallies starts coming they at least give 1200-1000 point nifty movement.
Market on few occasion went up til 10,200 and came down below 10,000 mark as well but couldn't close below 10 k as it got good support from Reliance industry and ITC to sustain the levels
So it looks trading range of 9500 -10000 looks to be revised ,one ironical thing happened in Friday evening as US job unemployment data came ,which suggested 2 million plus new job generation ,which was expected to be on negative eight million side.Dow future immediately rose up to the level of 3 percent and European markets as well.
Even SGX nifty rose up to the level of 10350 crossing the most powerful resistance of 10,200,one most noteworthy fact is that when on march nifty was hitting lower circuit ,it couldn't breach 10200 mark,hence it is being considered as resistant point,which SGX nifty crossed easily and rose up to 10,350.
Hence we are expecting in week ahead of nifty crosses 10200 with good volume ,next level has to be 10350 ,however by Friday evening on closing hours of US market a report came from US govt to have erroneous calculation of job report of excess 5 million jobs and hence it has to be be negative three million .But positive thing is that it is better than expected negative eight million.
Lets see ,how does Dow futures and rest of Asian market reacts to this knee jerk reactions in Monday Morning also Chinese trade data for quarter has come and it looks positive as trade balance was expected to be 39 billion , which eventually happen to be 63 billion,export fall was expecting to get reduced by 7 percent but it eventually fell only 3.3 percent.
Coming back to main and crucial topic of Indian market ,Monday Titan industry results are to be announced and Tuesday it will be Hero motocop. Consumer price inflation data is supposed to come by friday evening after market hours ,so it will have impact on next week.
Talking on technical clues of market ,10500 call option has highest open interest and 9000 on Put side and this should be ignored because writers sold heavily at this level and hasn't booked profit yet ,hence it has of lesser significance,second Highest build up of OI is in zone of 9500 and 9700.
This draws final conclusion that expected mid term range is 9500 to 10350 and as far as coming weak is concerned narrow range will be 9900 to 10350 and broad range can be 9700 to 10500.
This draws final conclusion that expected mid term range is 9500 to 10350 and as far as coming weak is concerned narrow range will be 9900 to 10350 and broad range can be 9700 to 10500.
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